Saturday 22 April 2017

Donald Drumpf



                                                  Donald Drumpf  

David Cay Johnston (DCJ) is a Pulitzer Prize winner (2001) known for investigative reporting and specializes in economics and tax related matters. He has been investigating Donald J Trump (DJT) and has followed his career for last 4-5 decades. He has crossed swords with DJT over a number of issues and has been at receiving end of threats of legal action from DJT for what DJT has perceived to be unfair representation of his affairs. DCJ’s book “The Making of Donald Trump” putting DJT through a detailed scrutiny was published in August 2016. DCJ wanted the book to be available to the US citizens well before the 2016 Presidential elections so that they could make an informed choice when they went to the voting booths on November 8th. Unfortunately he failed to influence the voters sufficiently.

Following are excerpts based on his book (and suitable paraphrasing wherever required). Comments and observations on various points are mentioned in parentheses. The story makes a compelling reading and throws light on the complex Machiavellian personality that is the 45th President of US of A.

FAMILY HISTORY

1.     Trump family originates from Germany and their original family name was Drumpf which was changed to Trump way back in 1648.

2.     DJT’s grand-father Friedrich left his home in Kallstadt in southwest Germany in 1885 at the age of 16 years faced with the prospect of imminent mandatory military service. (The history would repeat with a twist when DJT avoided getting drafted in 1960’s under one pretext or other).

3.     Friedrich settled in Seattle and opened an establishment The Dairy Restaurant. It also served as a low-rent pleasure house. He became a citizen in 1892 by mis-representing that he had arrived in US two years before he actually had. (This art of mis-representation of facts seems to be a trait fine-tuned by his grand-son as openly stated by DCJ a number of times in the book.)

4.     Friedrich (now Americanized to Fred) went across to Canada during the Klondike gold rush to repeat his formula for success. To quote DCJ, “He set up a bar and grille calling it The Artic. It offered hard liquor and “sporting ladies” as the prostitutes were called”. (True to his form he wound up the operations in time when the gold rush bubble burst and came back to US with a good amount of profit).

5.     Hi son Fred, DJT’s father, got arrested by New York police in a clash between police and Ku Klux Klan demonstrators but was let off without any charges. (DJT has constantly denied this going to the extent of stating that his father never stayed at the said location in spite of there being documentary evidence to the entire episode).
6.     Fred got into real estate business and during WWII won government contracts of construction of apartments and barracks for naval shipyards. With this experience he got contracts for post war housing of returning GIs. Fred was neither known for good construction or being a good landlord. (Again the similarity with DJT the developer and landlord).

7.      When he was under investigation for profiteering from the government contracts, Fred agreed that he had 4 millions dollars in bank which were excess of income over costs but claimed that these were not profits as he had not withdrawn them from the bank.  (This sort of fuzzy understanding of financial matters is also a common thread among the Trumps. DJT has used it to obfuscate every enquiry about his net worth and value of any specific asset he holds with this sort of funny reasoning.)

EDUCATION

1.     DJT spent two years at University of Pennsylvania studying towards a major in economics. He has always claimed that he also did his masters at Wharton School which is also a part of U Penn. There is no record to back that claim.
2.     During a legal enquiry where DJT was asked if he knew what Net Present Value (NPV) stood for, his response: “The concept of net present value to me would be the value of the land currently after debt. Well, to me the word ‘net’ is an interesting word. It’s really - the word ‘value’ is the important word. If you have an asset that you can do other things with but you don’t choose to do them - I haven’t chosen to do that”.
3.     After hearing that gibberish the lawyer asked “Do you know what ‘generally accepted accounting principles’ or GAAP is?” Trump’s answer “No, I am not an accountant”
4.     At another point during another legal proceedings, the court noted that he had declared net worth which fluctuated very widely over a short period of time while the economic conditions in general had not varied much. e.g. as he was preparing to run for presidency he indicated his net worth as $ 8.7 billion, $ 10 billion and $ 11 billion on three different days. On an earlier occasion, an attorney asked him if his net worth goes up and down based upon his feelings. His response “Yes. Even my own feelings (among other things) as to where the world is going, and that can change rapidly from day to day………..So yeah, even my own feelings affect my value to myself”.

The lawyer continued: “When you publicly state what you are worth, what do you base that number on?” Trump relied “I would say it’s my general attitude at the time the question may be asked. And as I say it varies.”

(It is certainly difficult to imagine that a business man running an empire of 400 companies and with smartest of financial consultants at his call can have no fundas about elementary issues and standard terms in finance like above; so it has to be just his way of blustering through things with every intention of not letting outside world get close to reality regarding the state of his financial affairs). 


FRIENDS AND BUSINESS ASSOCIATES

1.     Roy Cohn – a notorious lawyer, a close friend and mentor to DJT, had strong links to mafia families operating in New York - Gambino and Castellino. He ensured that even in the times when the transport workers were on strike the supplies for trump companies went on unhindered.

2.     Johny Weichselbaum who was a twice-convicted felon ran a helicopter service for Trump casino for years. He was convicted in one more case of drug trafficking and sent to jail. Once he came out he resumed services as helicopter consultant and DJT rented him an apartment (owned by DJT personally) in Trump Plaza at an extremely concessional rate. Trump had also written a letter to the judge on Weichselbaum trial asking for leniency citing Weichselbaum as a ‘credit to community’.  

3.     Robert (Bob) Libutti was a con man who had been penalized for a number of scams in the horse –racing industry. He was a friend of DJT’s and the biggest patron of Trump’s casino in Atlantic City. He also has the distinction of being the biggest loser at Trump casino. DJT gave him many lucrative gifts including luxury cars. (One might be tempted to classify this as a ‘business expenditure’ but Libutti also had a few other connections which no doubt enhanced his value to DJT).

4.     Trump made a deal to put his name on Trump Golden Series and Trump Executie Series limousines. The Cadillacs were modified by Dillinger Coach Services. Only problem was Dillinger was owned by convicted extortionist Jack Schwartz and a convicted thief John Staluppi who was a member of a mafia family.


MEMORY

1.     DJT has always boasted that he has the greatest memory, better than anybody else. But whenever he is questioned on his ties with most of his ‘shady’ friends and business associates, he flatly acknowledges even having known them earlier with a standard excuse “I don’t remember”.  This has happened with most of the friends mentioned in earlier section.   

2.     At a later date DJT claimed that he hardly knew Johny Weichselbaum and even denied writing a letter to judge asking for leniency although the letter is part of records. Ultimately Trump had to acknowledge that the letter indeed bore its signature.

3.     Once Bob Libutti ran out of money to gamble, he was banned by Atlantic City on pretext of racial bias and Trump flatly refused to acknowledge that he knew him even when there were videos showing them together at birthday party of Libutti’s daughter.

4.     The same theme recurs whenever DJT finds it inconvenient for him to be linked up with people who are known to have bad records.    


BUSINESS PRACTICES

1.     DJT’s association with Roy Cohn has ensured ‘amicable’ relations with construction workers’ unions to the extent that construction of Trump Towers in New York was done through what has now come to be known as Polish Brigade, bunch of workers who had just been got in from Poland and made to work without adequate safety equipment (no hard hats, no face-masks or gloves) and working tools (no power tools, the construction required demolition of an existing 12 storied building. This was done manually by the workers using sledgehammers). The crew was underpaid and not even given adequate living quarters at site which made them sleep on bare floors during the New York winter. This was all brought out during a trial which was decided in favour of workers.

2.     DJT had been sued for $ 20 million by a woman who claimed he had received kick-backs from contractors – a criminal act.  DJT, who claims that he never settles a suit, promptly settled for $ 500,000.

3.     The circumstances under which he procured a license to run a casino in Atlantic City are also dubious as he failed to give complete information about the past investigations he had had undergone at the hands of law. His subsequent business dealings with associates who had a criminal record were also in contravention of the law but were not questioned by the enforcement authorities who prided themselves for being extra vigilant to ensure that the owners had no connection with organized crime.

4.     Trump University which was promoted by him in 2005 exemplifies the way in which he has carried out his various activities. Within a week of this, the New York authorities asked him to stop using the word ‘university’ as it had not been authorized by the state to do so. DJT brazenly continued to ignore that for 5 years and only in 2010 it was changed to ‘Trump Entrepreneur Initiative’. It was located at 40 Wall Street, a building owned by Trump. It happens that the address is so notorious that DCJ says it is “the address of choice for stock-market swindlers and penny stock scams”.

The ‘university’ conducted short term courses in real estate with exorbitant price tags eg a 3 day ‘Gold Elite’ course would cost $ 35,000.  DJT had personally declared in the promo videos that he would select the best faculty but the faculty chosen ultimately had no real experience in real estate which was to be the sole strength of the university. A couple of years later when DJT was sued for civil fraud in California, he could not identify a single faculty member from the photographs and videos of live events at the university.

5.     The American Academy of Hospitality Sciences has bestowed nineteen of its topmost awards to Trump golf courses, Trump Tower, Trump Taj Mahal Casino and even a lifetime award on DJT. All very great but for a small fact that The American Academy of Hospitality Sciences is run by a trust controlled by DJT. DJT himself holds a title of “Ambassador Extraordinaire”. Other trustees include DJT’s employees, relatives including his daughter Ivanka and son Donald Jr. Another trustee has been Anthony Senecal, DJT’s long time butler. The President of the Society at whose hands DJT has received his wards was Joseph Cinque whom DJT praised in a video as a “special guy”. Joseph Cinque was also a judge at Trump – owned Miss Universe pageant and a regular visitor to DJT’s New Year Eve parties at Mar-a-Lago. The only issue is that Cinque is a convicted art thief and a fence apart from having absolutely no experience in hospitality industry.

During his presidential campaign DJT was asked about Cinque’s past criminal record only to have DJT respond that he hardly knew the guy. !!! 

6.     Trump Ocean Resort in Mexico just across the border from San Diego was advertised as a Trump Portfolio property and listed on trump.com the official web-site of Trump companies. Trump himself and his children Ivanka and Donald Jr were the part of promotion campaign which attracted a number of buyers for the luxury resorts. Over a period the narrative changed and Trumps proclaimed that the Trump name had been only licensed to the actual Developers and Trumps have absolutely no responsibility towards the project beyond that. A number of buyers sued the Trumps and they had to settle with the buyers.

A similar story seems to have unfolded in Hawaii for Trump International Hotel and Tower at Waikiki Beach Walk where Trump was projected as co-developer and partner in the project. It was only later that the buyers discovered that Trump had merely licensed his name to the project with the Trumps claiming that although they were developing the resort they were not “the Developers” and here too, the Trumps had to settle the suit filed by disenchanted buyers. Similar tales have been repeated in a number of projects.

Comments:

Perhaps more shocking is his attitude towards debt. During his campaign in 2006 DJT told CNBC: “I’ve borrowed knowing that you can pay back with discounts. And I’ve done very well with debt.” (No one should be surprised to find out that Trump has filed for bankruptcies under Chapter 11 a total of 6 times – Trump Taj Mahal in Atlantic City (1990), two more casinos in Atlantic City (1992), Plaza Hotel New York (1992), Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts (2004) and Trump Entertainment Resorts (2009).

If US wanted to have someone who could run the country like a corporate enterprise, Donald J Trump should have been the last of its choices. I could not get a figure about how many billions the investors in Trump’s companies have lost as a result of his six bankruptcies but his seventh bankruptcy could be by far the worst of them all and it would cost all of us in trillions of US$.

His Income tax returns have generated a lot of debate. Trump has not released his returns for the last few years under the excuse that they are still under audit. With a slew of 400 companies where he has interests and each with some complication or other, it is doubtful if the world will ever see these returns to confirm or dispel the doubts that everyone has about his businesses and his net worth. 

This then is the man who is now the President of USA, arguably the most powerful position on the globe today. I don’t know how many of US citizens still find him honest and trustworthy but I wonder if even 1% of unbiased readers of this piece would still harbor any illusions about him. God save the USA and frankly God save the world.   

LazyBee
22nd  April 2017

Remarks:
1.     The author David Cay Johnston has provided necessary links to the documents in his book on which the information presented here is based (The Making of Donald Trump by Melville House, Brooklyn and London). Moreover he has offered to send links to any relevant documents that a reader may not be able to obtain. He is contactable on davidcayjohnston@me.com

2.     The information about Trump’s bankruptcies are from www.washingtonpost.com

___________________________________________________________________

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Friday 7 April 2017

Demographic Dividend

                                                       Demographic Dividend

I don’t remember when I first came across “demographic dividend” but it must have been in the heady days of early 2000’s when the world seemed to have finally broken free of the brick and mortar and was soaring into the brave new millennium.  It was a cute little term which immediately assured all of India that things were under control and absolutely on track. We may have problems about food security, water shortage, power shortages, unemployment and poverty for the moment but we sure had a bright future ahead of us. That was karma, ordained in our national destiny.

One could almost hear a collective sigh of relief from the politicians. There it was. The writing was on the wall. No need to worry about those teeming millions clamouring for such mundane things like roti-kapdaa-makaan. It was beyond the teeming millions to imagine just what bounties were in store for them. They just needed to be patient (maybe for a generation or two) but we will surely feed them Mongini’s cakes, dress them in the finest of Raymonds and house them in New Cuffe Parade. Demographic Dividend, you see, would bring everything that everyone ever desired. So let the party begin. Achhe din toh aanewaale hi hai.    

Demographic dividend as a term seemed to be very very Indian, if you get what I mean. We Indians have always been good at making up these sexy sounding slogans and phrases. Take for example “mera Bharat mahaan”. While I would much rather believe in this concept, the reality seems to be somewhat different. As some wit proclaimed “sau mein se ninyaanbein beimaan, phir bhi mera Bharat mahan”. Or consider “satyameva jayate”; it may very well translate to “the Truth alone shall triumph” but little does one see Truth manifest itself and forget about it prevailing anywhere. The only ones perhaps to have benefited from this slogan satyameva jayate” are Aamir Khan and Star Plus who leveraged the phrase to make a successful TV show.

Surprisingly, demographic dividend turns out to have a non-Indian origin with no less than hallowed UN defining it. Demographic dividend, as defined by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) means, “the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger, and 65 and older).”  In other words, it is “a boost in economic productivity that occurs when there are growing numbers of people in the workforce relative to the number of dependents.”  UNFPA states that, “A country with both increasing numbers of young people and declining fertility has the potential to reap a demographic dividend. 

Well, so far so good. But like all the attractive schemes that one comes across, this one also has a “terms and conditions apply” clause attached to it. So if one were to go through the fine print, like anyone with common sense should, one would immediately understand that in order for economic growth to occur the younger population must have access to quality education and employment opportunities. And therein lies the problem of the elusive demographic dividend.
In his latest book “The Rise and Fall of Nations” Ruchir Sharma has dealt with this issue in detail, citing numerous cases across a large number of economies and over a fairly substantial period of about 50 years. The conclusions and observations that he has drawn are fascinating to say the least.  
Obviously the first conclusion about demographic dividend is that the increase in population is in no way a sufficient condition for creating growth. It’s true that there have been a number of instances in last 50 years where a few countries did show a growth in GDP of more than 6% per annum and an increase in population of 2.7% per annum, but during the 60s and 70s many countries in Africa and China and India also had a similarly healthy increase in population but no matching increase in GDP. On the other hand these countries had to battle unemployment, famines and civil strife. In Arab countries, considered as a group, the population grew at a rate of more than 3% during the 20 year period between 1985 and 2005 but there was no proportionate growth in GDP.
In the countries that have reaped this demographic dividend, almost half the growth has come from the increase in population and the balance from improvement in productivity. This seems to be a rule of thumb applicable to the demographic dividend story.
But the world seems to moving into a low population growth zone. Many developed countries are already in the Zero Population Growth zone (ZPG) and countries like Japan are already in the negative zone. Even China which had followed the one-child per couple policy is now in negative zone. (It is true that China has now abandoned the one-child policy but the effects of this change are going to take a long time to materialize).
In 2005, the European Commission warned that “there never has been a growth without population increase”. In today’s world post-crisis of 2008, very few countries have a strong population growth that could be a possible precursor to generation of demographic dividend. For that matter even India is slowing down and for the first time since the census of India was instituted, the rate of increase of population has fallen to 1.64% per annum over the decade of 2001 - 2011. Moreover, the population in the age group 0-6 years is almost unchanged over this period which shows that the increase in overall population is due to decrease in mortality and therefore aging of population. True the population will still keep on growing for a few decades but it will do so at a diminishing rate if the present trend persists. But as the population ages the ratio of working to non-working population is going to deteriorate with time.
The second premise on which the concept of demographic dividend rests is the job creation for new entrants into the working age-group. Here too, we in India, are going to find that things have changed radically. Global growth itself is slowing down and no major country has regained the growth rates it enjoyed before the 2008 crisis. We have been hopeful of replacing China (at least partially) as the powerhouse of manufacturing since the Chinese are pricing themselves out with higher wage rates. But the recent trends have belied this hope. China is being replaced not by India but by Bangladesh, Vietnam and a few other developing countries which are fast getting their act together. After all we have not made much progress on making India a business friendly place. In short, there is not much on economic horizon which will create jobs for the 12 million of Indians entering job market every year notwithstanding the hype about “make in India”. A worthy concept no doubt but one which is unfortunately a couple of decades too late.
We Indians have been fairly used to things which run late. Train travelers routinely experience being stranded on a crowded platform waiting for a train which is long overdue and expected any moment. Everyone hopes that although the train is late, it will arrive soon and then it will somehow make up for the lost time. Today whole of India is on the platform waiting for the train. But the realist in me is afraid that suddenly the PA system will crackle into life and some announcer, in a hurry to close shop and go home, will announce “We are sorry to inform you that The Demographic Express going to Dividend Nagar is delayed indefinitely. We are very sorry for the inconvenience caused to the travelers.”      
Cheers   
LazyBee
7th April 2017

Credits:
1.     As you would have no doubt realized the trigger for this article has been provided by “The Rise and Fall of Nations” - by Ruchir Sharma - Published by W W Norton & Co, New York – 2016 from where the past data of countries has been taken.
2.     The Indian demographic data  was obtained from the official site of Indian Government -  Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, Ministry of Home Affairs,  www.censusindia.gov.in
3.     Any misinterpretations in above, if any, are solely mine.
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You are getting this mail because you have something common with the sender and perhaps a healthy sense of humour to enjoy a chuckle or two once in a while.

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