Of Prompt Peters and Late Latifs

December has always been a special month. It's the time when there is a large scale migration of homo sapiens across the globe, mainly for holidays / recreation and / or on account of homecoming of those settled in distant lands. Over last few decades this has been augmented by homecoming of a different kind. Hordes of alumni of different institutions home on their respective  alma mater  to meet old friends and renew their ties of friendship. 

It is now strongly felt that these specimens, generally classified as homo sapiens, are actually a distinct species now named as homo alumnus. This is an attempt to take a look at this species. 

OF PROMPT PETERS AND LATE LATIFS, AND ALSO OF REGRETFUL ROBINS AND IGNORANT IBRAHIMS

Sometime in the eighteenth century, Linnaeus laid down the basics of classification of diverse life forms. This led to developments that we are all too aware of, complicated stuff all and Greek and Latin to most of us, and a cause of endless tension during exam times. This, of course, did not mean that all the species have been found and properly classified. New theories keep on coming up all the time forcing us to reorient our thinking. A recent study carried out has brought out some startling facts about species homo alumnus. This study was confined to the alumnus of IIT Bombay but could well be extended to the entire species.  

As per the findings of the study, the species is far from homogenous as it was long held but can be further classified into four sub-species; each with a different neural make up.We publish below an abstract of the findings. Those interested in the details can await the publication of full treatise in the forthcoming issue of  Nature and  / or log on to the site www.homoalumnus.edu. The general characteristics of the species being by and large present in all the sub-species, it is quite common for a specimen of one sub-species to be mistaken for another and sometimes traits belonging to one sub-species become manifest in another. But still the researchers have reason to believe that these divisions among sub-species do exist and the classification needs to be modified to incorporate these findings. 

1.    Alumnus promptus (or Prompt Peters in everyday parlance): This sub-species is characterized by a strong memory and a well developed area in the ‘association cortex’, that part of brain which is considered to be the centre of all nostalgic feelings. As a result, the sub-species is likely to experience a strong urge to participate in the alumni activities and is not averse to going to any extent to contact and bring others of the species together, not necessarily only the A. promptus variety.
 
2.    Alumnus retardus (or Late Latifs): This sub-species is characterized by a weak memory and/or a lazy disposition. Specimen belonging to this sub-species require constant prodding, cajoling and even threats to get activated even if it is for the common good of the species. A. retardus sometime seem to suffer from delusions of their own importance in the scheme of things and have perfected the art of cash-flow planning. However, once activated, these have a tendency to get vociferous and start demanding that they be accorded priority in everything as befits their deemed status.

3.    Alumnus regrettus (or Regretful Robins): This sub-species is characterized by a certain touch of schizophrenia. They may have a fairly strong memory and a well developed ‘association cortex’, sometimes as developed as the A. promptus but in their case the association cortex is under the influence of the limbic system, the part of brain which is the centre of work and family related emotions. This leads to a certain amount of vacillating behaviour and a sense of melancholia as the association cortex is not allowed to play its rightful role. 

4.    Alumnus ignoramus: (or Ignorant Ibrahims): This is the most interesting sub-species of all as the specimen vie with each other in exploring the unknown frontiers of bliss. The research indicates that on an average these specimens require 3 years 7 months and 14 days to wake up to the fact that some important event like silver jubilee get-together has passed them by without them noticing it. There has also been an instant where a specimen claimed that he had forgotten in which hostel he had spent the 5 years of his stay in IIT (Rejoice ye classmates of mine, for the honour does not belong to us. Thank God for small mercies). As yet, the researchers have not come across a case where some specimen has claimed that he had forgotten which IIT he / she passed out from. But with number of IITs about to grow and the intake of students set to explode, the researchers opine that the day may not be too far when that milestone is also reached.

Readers who are keen to understand the basics of behaviour of homo alumnus as a species may refer to the standard textbooks available in the Central Library, viz:

1.    “Alumni: Their Natural Habitat and Behavioral Patterns” by Al Muni (grand-nephew of late actor Paul Muni)

2.     “Alumni and Half-life of Their Relation with Alma Mater”: by Stew Dent 

 LazyBee

December 2001

Performance Appraisal

PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL

The President was alone in his office; a rarity, as a large entourage of minions would normally surround him from dawn to dusk. Through the windows of his spacious private office, he could see the early summer day setting on the trees in the garden, showing glimpses of what the landscape would look like later in the season. This would have normally gladdened the heart of the President but for the foreboding of doom he had been having for a few days now.

Gone was the euphoria when “the election of the century”, as he was fond of calling it, had swung the way he had only dreamt of. It still came as a major surprise, no doubt a pleasant one, that all his years of meticulous planning and vicious attacks on all other presidential aspirants had actually gone as per his calculations. The well-timed leaks and constant discrediting of news reports had all helped his cause. It had worked like a charm. So fantastic. But the situation seemed to be unravelling much more rapidly than he could ever have imagined. The President could feel the bile rising in him. The news media - of course, the news media and those losers in the White House administration who were working overtime leaking to the media - all seemed to be conspiring to undo all that he had worked diligently for years. The big prize, now secure in his grasp, seemed to be slipping away. The President had every right to feel furious.

He cast his mind back to General Flynn, a nice friendly guy and moreover a loyal guy. Flynn knew where his interests lay and could be trusted to obey his master, but these guys had targeted him and forced him out. Lucky it had been possible to stave off the limelight from Jeff Sessions by that diversionary tactic of bombing Assad’s Syria – a masterstroke if there was one in the international theatre in recent years.

But now there was a specter of more of his men being “exposed” - fine men who had served him faithfully and had so much potential. It would be a pity if they had to be sacrificed but when it came to power there were no compromises. That guy Comey was the one, the President thought bitterly, who had been behind all this. Comey, the one who had been amply warned but refused to take his cue. It was best to have got rid of him. Good riddance! But unfortunately the matter seemed to have been badly received by the voters. Now it was threatening to snowball; the Special Counsel, the testimonies of those oldies in CIA and DNI, Congressional and Senate hearings, the subpoenas, the matter seemed to be going out of hand.  

The President sighed. So terrible. He considered himself as a patriot and no one could doubt his patriotism surely. All he had wanted to do was to ensure that his country was at the number one spot where it rightfully belonged, but somehow he felt he had let down his great nation. His office was lined with the portraits of the founding fathers and he wanted to be placed there right among them when the time came. Often, when he was in his office, he had felt the critical gaze of the founding fathers upon him, subjecting his every action to merciless scrutiny and had sometimes felt that they were trying to convey something to him across the chasm of time. He loved to cast a lingering glance on their portraits as he left them at the end of his day but today he dreaded to meet their gaze. Failure was one thing which they would not have approved of. Finally he got out of his chair and on his way out stood under the portrait of the first one and raised his gaze.

Surprisingly there was no stern rebuke in the eyes of the first one he had expected to see, not even a look of disapproval but only benign approbation. The great man’s portrait seemed to convey a message to him and this time somehow he could decipher the message as clearly as a spoken word “We are all proud of you. You have succeeded where none of us could make much of a headway over the years. Congratulations Vladimir Vladimirovich”    

LazyBee

26^th May 2017

Donald Drumpf

                                                  Donald Drumpf  

David Cay Johnston (DCJ) is a Pulitzer Prize winner (2001) known for investigative reporting and specializes in economics and tax related matters. He has been investigating Donald J Trump (DJT) and has followed his career for last 4-5 decades. He has crossed swords with DJT over a number of issues and has been at receiving end of threats of legal action from DJT for what DJT has perceived to be unfair representation of his affairs. DCJ’s book “The Making of Donald Trump” putting DJT through a detailed scrutiny was published in August 2016. DCJ wanted the book to be available to the US citizens well before the 2016 Presidential elections so that they could make an informed choice when they went to the voting booths on November 8^th. Unfortunately he failed to influence the voters sufficiently.

Following are excerpts based on his book (and suitable paraphrasing wherever required). Comments and observations on various points are mentioned in parentheses. The story makes a compelling reading and throws light on the complex Machiavellian personality that is the 45^th President of US of A.

FAMILY HISTORY

1.     Trump family originates from Germany and their original family name was Drumpf which was changed to Trump way back in 1648.

2.     DJT’s grand-father Friedrich left his home in Kallstadt in southwest Germany in 1885 at the age of 16 years faced with the prospect of imminent mandatory military service. (The history would repeat with a twist when DJT avoided getting drafted in 1960’s under one pretext or other).

3.     Friedrich settled in Seattle and opened an establishment The Dairy Restaurant. It also served as a low-rent pleasure house. He became a citizen in 1892 by mis-representing that he had arrived in US two years before he actually had. (This art of mis-representation of facts seems to be a trait fine-tuned by his grand-son as openly stated by DCJ a number of times in the book.)

4.     Friedrich (now Americanized to Fred) went across to Canada during the Klondike gold rush to repeat his formula for success. To quote DCJ, “He set up a bar and grille calling it The Artic. It offered hard liquor and “sporting ladies” as the prostitutes were called”. (True to his form he wound up the operations in time when the gold rush bubble burst and came back to US with a good amount of profit).

5.     Hi son Fred, DJT’s father, got arrested by New York police in a clash between police and Ku Klux Klan demonstrators but was let off without any charges. (DJT has constantly denied this going to the extent of stating that his father never stayed at the said location in spite of there being documentary evidence to the entire episode).

6.     Fred got into real estate business and during WWII won government contracts of construction of apartments and barracks for naval shipyards. With this experience he got contracts for post war housing of returning GIs. Fred was neither known for good construction or being a good landlord. (Again the similarity with DJT the developer and landlord).

7.      When he was under investigation for profiteering from the government contracts, Fred agreed that he had 4 millions dollars in bank which were excess of income over costs but claimed that these were not profits as he had not withdrawn them from the bank.  (This sort of fuzzy understanding of financial matters is also a common thread among the Trumps. DJT has used it to obfuscate every enquiry about his net worth and value of any specific asset he holds with this sort of funny reasoning.)

EDUCATION

1.     DJT spent two years at University of Pennsylvania studying towards a major in economics. He has always claimed that he also did his masters at Wharton School which is also a part of U Penn. There is no record to back that claim.

2.     During a legal enquiry where DJT was asked if he knew what Net Present Value (NPV) stood for, his response: “The concept of net present value to me would be the value of the land currently after debt. Well, to me the word ‘net’ is an interesting word. It’s really - the word ‘value’ is the important word. If you have an asset that you can do other things with but you don’t choose to do them - I haven’t chosen to do that”.

3.     After hearing that gibberish the lawyer asked “Do you know what ‘generally accepted accounting principles’ or GAAP is?” Trump’s answer “No, I am not an accountant”

4.     At another point during another legal proceedings, the court noted that he had declared net worth which fluctuated very widely over a short period of time while the economic conditions in general had not varied much. e.g. as he was preparing to run for presidency he indicated his net worth as $ 8.7 billion, $ 10 billion and $ 11 billion on three different days. On an earlier occasion, an attorney asked him if his net worth goes up and down based upon his feelings. His response “Yes. Even my own feelings (among other things) as to where the world is going, and that can change rapidly from day to day………..So yeah, even my own feelings affect my value to myself”.

The lawyer continued: “When you publicly state what you are worth, what do you base that number on?” Trump relied “I would say it’s my general attitude at the time the question may be asked. And as I say it varies.”

(It is certainly difficult to imagine that a business man running an empire of 400 companies and with smartest of financial consultants at his call can have no fundas about elementary issues and standard terms in finance like above; so it has to be just his way of blustering through things with every intention of not letting outside world get close to reality regarding the state of his financial affairs). 

FRIENDS AND BUSINESS ASSOCIATES

1.     Roy Cohn – a notorious lawyer, a close friend and mentor to DJT, had strong links to mafia families operating in New York - Gambino and Castellino. He ensured that even in the times when the transport workers were on strike the supplies for trump companies went on unhindered.

2.     Johny Weichselbaum who was a twice-convicted felon ran a helicopter service for Trump casino for years. He was convicted in one more case of drug trafficking and sent to jail. Once he came out he resumed services as helicopter consultant and DJT rented him an apartment (owned by DJT personally) in Trump Plaza at an extremely concessional rate. Trump had also written a letter to the judge on Weichselbaum trial asking for leniency citing Weichselbaum as a ‘credit to community’.  

3.     Robert (Bob) Libutti was a con man who had been penalized for a number of scams in the horse –racing industry. He was a friend of DJT’s and the biggest patron of Trump’s casino in Atlantic City. He also has the distinction of being the biggest loser at Trump casino. DJT gave him many lucrative gifts including luxury cars. (One might be tempted to classify this as a ‘business expenditure’ but Libutti also had a few other connections which no doubt enhanced his value to DJT).

4.     Trump made a deal to put his name on Trump Golden Series and Trump Executie Series limousines. The Cadillacs were modified by Dillinger Coach Services. Only problem was Dillinger was owned by convicted extortionist Jack Schwartz and a convicted thief John Staluppi who was a member of a mafia family.

MEMORY

1.     DJT has always boasted that he has the greatest memory, better than anybody else. But whenever he is questioned on his ties with most of his ‘shady’ friends and business associates, he flatly acknowledges even having known them earlier with a standard excuse “I don’t remember”.  This has happened with most of the friends mentioned in earlier section.   

2.     At a later date DJT claimed that he hardly knew Johny Weichselbaum and even denied writing a letter to judge asking for leniency although the letter is part of records. Ultimately Trump had to acknowledge that the letter indeed bore its signature.

3.     Once Bob Libutti ran out of money to gamble, he was banned by Atlantic City on pretext of racial bias and Trump flatly refused to acknowledge that he knew him even when there were videos showing them together at birthday party of Libutti’s daughter.

4.     The same theme recurs whenever DJT finds it inconvenient for him to be linked up with people who are known to have bad records.    

BUSINESS PRACTICES

1.     DJT’s association with Roy Cohn has ensured ‘amicable’ relations with construction workers’ unions to the extent that construction of Trump Towers in New York was done through what has now come to be known as Polish Brigade, bunch of workers who had just been got in from Poland and made to work without adequate safety equipment (no hard hats, no face-masks or gloves) and working tools (no power tools, the construction required demolition of an existing 12 storied building. This was done manually by the workers using sledgehammers). The crew was underpaid and not even given adequate living quarters at site which made them sleep on bare floors during the New York winter. This was all brought out during a trial which was decided in favour of workers.

2.     DJT had been sued for $ 20 million by a woman who claimed he had received kick-backs from contractors – a criminal act.  DJT, who claims that he never settles a suit, promptly settled for $ 500,000.

3.     The circumstances under which he procured a license to run a casino in Atlantic City are also dubious as he failed to give complete information about the past investigations he had had undergone at the hands of law. His subsequent business dealings with associates who had a criminal record were also in contravention of the law but were not questioned by the enforcement authorities who prided themselves for being extra vigilant to ensure that the owners had no connection with organized crime.

4.     Trump University which was promoted by him in 2005 exemplifies the way in which he has carried out his various activities. Within a week of this, the New York authorities asked him to stop using the word ‘university’ as it had not been authorized by the state to do so. DJT brazenly continued to ignore that for 5 years and only in 2010 it was changed to ‘Trump Entrepreneur Initiative’. It was located at 40 Wall Street, a building owned by Trump. It happens that the address is so notorious that DCJ says it is “the address of choice for stock-market swindlers and penny stock scams”.

The ‘university’ conducted short term courses in real estate with exorbitant price tags eg a 3 day ‘Gold Elite’ course would cost $ 35,000.  DJT had personally declared in the promo videos that he would select the best faculty but the faculty chosen ultimately had no real experience in real estate which was to be the sole strength of the university. A couple of years later when DJT was sued for civil fraud in California, he could not identify a single faculty member from the photographs and videos of live events at the university.

5.     The American Academy of Hospitality Sciences has bestowed nineteen of its topmost awards to Trump golf courses, Trump Tower, Trump Taj Mahal Casino and even a lifetime award on DJT. All very great but for a small fact that The American Academy of Hospitality Sciences is run by a trust controlled by DJT. DJT himself holds a title of “Ambassador Extraordinaire”. Other trustees include DJT’s employees, relatives including his daughter Ivanka and son Donald Jr. Another trustee has been Anthony Senecal, DJT’s long time butler. The President of the Society at whose hands DJT has received his wards was Joseph Cinque whom DJT praised in a video as a “special guy”. Joseph Cinque was also a judge at Trump – owned Miss Universe pageant and a regular visitor to DJT’s New Year Eve parties at Mar-a-Lago. The only issue is that Cinque is a convicted art thief and a fence apart from having absolutely no experience in hospitality industry.

During his presidential campaign DJT was asked about Cinque’s past criminal record only to have DJT respond that he hardly knew the guy. !!! 

6.     Trump Ocean Resort in Mexico just across the border from San Diego was advertised as a Trump Portfolio property and listed on trump.com the official web-site of Trump companies. Trump himself and his children Ivanka and Donald Jr were the part of promotion campaign which attracted a number of buyers for the luxury resorts. Over a period the narrative changed and Trumps proclaimed that the Trump name had been only licensed to the actual Developers and Trumps have absolutely no responsibility towards the project beyond that. A number of buyers sued the Trumps and they had to settle with the buyers.

A similar story seems to have unfolded in Hawaii for Trump International Hotel and Tower at Waikiki Beach Walk where Trump was projected as co-developer and partner in the project. It was only later that the buyers discovered that Trump had merely licensed his name to the project with the Trumps claiming that although they were developing the resort they were not “the Developers” and here too, the Trumps had to settle the suit filed by disenchanted buyers. Similar tales have been repeated in a number of projects.

Comments:

Perhaps more shocking is his attitude towards debt. During his campaign in 2006 DJT told CNBC: “I’ve borrowed knowing that you can pay back with discounts. And I’ve done very well with debt.” (No one should be surprised to find out that Trump has filed for bankruptcies under Chapter 11 a total of 6 times – Trump Taj Mahal in Atlantic City (1990), two more casinos in Atlantic City (1992), Plaza Hotel New York (1992), Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts (2004) and Trump Entertainment Resorts (2009).

If US wanted to have someone who could run the country like a corporate enterprise, Donald J Trump should have been the last of its choices. I could not get a figure about how many billions the investors in Trump’s companies have lost as a result of his six bankruptcies but his seventh bankruptcy could be by far the worst of them all and it would cost all of us in trillions of US$.

His Income tax returns have generated a lot of debate. Trump has not released his returns for the last few years under the excuse that they are still under audit. With a slew of 400 companies where he has interests and each with some complication or other, it is doubtful if the world will ever see these returns to confirm or dispel the doubts that everyone has about his businesses and his net worth. 

This then is the man who is now the President of USA, arguably the most powerful position on the globe today. I don’t know how many of US citizens still find him honest and trustworthy but I wonder if even 1% of unbiased readers of this piece would still harbor any illusions about him. God save the USA and frankly God save the world.   

LazyBee

22^nd  April 2017

Remarks:

1.     The author David Cay Johnston has provided necessary links to the documents in his book on which the information presented here is based (The Making of Donald Trump by Melville House, Brooklyn and London). Moreover he has offered to send links to any relevant documents that a reader may not be able to obtain. He is contactable on davidcayjohnston@me.com

2.     The information about Trump’s bankruptcies are from www.washingtonpost.com

___________________________________________________________________

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Demographic Dividend

                                                       Demographic Dividend

I don’t remember when I first came across “demographic dividend” but it must have been in the heady days of early 2000’s when the world seemed to have finally broken free of the brick and mortar and was soaring into the brave new millennium.  It was a cute little term which immediately assured all of India that things were under control and absolutely on track. We may have problems about food security, water shortage, power shortages, unemployment and poverty for the moment but we sure had a bright future ahead of us. That was karma, ordained in our national destiny.

One could almost hear a collective sigh of relief from the politicians. There it was. The writing was on the wall. No need to worry about those teeming millions clamouring for such mundane things like roti-kapdaa-makaan. It was beyond the teeming millions to imagine just what bounties were in store for them. They just needed to be patient (maybe for a generation or two) but we will surely feed them Mongini’s cakes, dress them in the finest of Raymonds and house them in New Cuffe Parade. Demographic Dividend, you see, would bring everything that everyone ever desired. So let the party begin. Achhe din toh aanewaale hi hai.    

Demographic dividend as a term seemed to be very very Indian, if you get what I mean. We Indians have always been good at making up these sexy sounding slogans and phrases. Take for example “mera Bharat mahaan”. While I would much rather believe in this concept, the reality seems to be somewhat different. As some wit proclaimed “sau mein se ninyaanbein beimaan, phir bhi mera Bharat mahan”. Or consider “satyameva jayate”; it may very well translate to “the Truth alone shall triumph” but little does one see Truth manifest itself and forget about it prevailing anywhere. The only ones perhaps to have benefited from this slogan satyameva jayate” are Aamir Khan and Star Plus who leveraged the phrase to make a successful TV show.

Surprisingly, demographic dividend turns out to have a non-Indian origin with no less than hallowed UN defining it. Demographic dividend, as defined by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) means, “the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger, and 65 and older).”  In other words, it is “a boost in economic productivity that occurs when there are growing numbers of people in the workforce relative to the number of dependents.”  UNFPA states that, “A country with both increasing numbers of young people and declining fertility has the potential to reap a demographic dividend. 

Well, so far so good. But like all the attractive schemes that one comes across, this one also has a “terms and conditions apply” clause attached to it. So if one were to go through the fine print, like anyone with common sense should, one would immediately understand that in order for economic growth to occur the younger population must have access to quality education and employment opportunities. And therein lies the problem of the elusive demographic dividend.

In his latest book “The Rise and Fall of Nations” Ruchir Sharma has dealt with this issue in detail, citing numerous cases across a large number of economies and over a fairly substantial period of about 50 years. The conclusions and observations that he has drawn are fascinating to say the least.  

Obviously the first conclusion about demographic dividend is that the increase in population is in no way a sufficient condition for creating growth. It’s true that there have been a number of instances in last 50 years where a few countries did show a growth in GDP of more than 6% per annum and an increase in population of 2.7% per annum, but during the 60s and 70s many countries in Africa and China and India also had a similarly healthy increase in population but no matching increase in GDP. On the other hand these countries had to battle unemployment, famines and civil strife. In Arab countries, considered as a group, the population grew at a rate of more than 3% during the 20 year period between 1985 and 2005 but there was no proportionate growth in GDP.

In the countries that have reaped this demographic dividend, almost half the growth has come from the increase in population and the balance from improvement in productivity. This seems to be a rule of thumb applicable to the demographic dividend story.

But the world seems to moving into a low population growth zone. Many developed countries are already in the Zero Population Growth zone (ZPG) and countries like Japan are already in the negative zone. Even China which had followed the one-child per couple policy is now in negative zone. (It is true that China has now abandoned the one-child policy but the effects of this change are going to take a long time to materialize).

In 2005, the European Commission warned that “there never has been a growth without population increase”. In today’s world post-crisis of 2008, very few countries have a strong population growth that could be a possible precursor to generation of demographic dividend. For that matter even India is slowing down and for the first time since the census of India was instituted, the rate of increase of population has fallen to 1.64% per annum over the decade of 2001 - 2011. Moreover, the population in the age group 0-6 years is almost unchanged over this period which shows that the increase in overall population is due to decrease in mortality and therefore aging of population. True the population will still keep on growing for a few decades but it will do so at a diminishing rate if the present trend persists. But as the population ages the ratio of working to non-working population is going to deteriorate with time.

The second premise on which the concept of demographic dividend rests is the job creation for new entrants into the working age-group. Here too, we in India, are going to find that things have changed radically. Global growth itself is slowing down and no major country has regained the growth rates it enjoyed before the 2008 crisis. We have been hopeful of replacing China (at least partially) as the powerhouse of manufacturing since the Chinese are pricing themselves out with higher wage rates. But the recent trends have belied this hope. China is being replaced not by India but by Bangladesh, Vietnam and a few other developing countries which are fast getting their act together. After all we have not made much progress on making India a business friendly place. In short, there is not much on economic horizon which will create jobs for the 12 million of Indians entering job market every year notwithstanding the hype about “make in India”. A worthy concept no doubt but one which is unfortunately a couple of decades too late.

We Indians have been fairly used to things which run late. Train travelers routinely experience being stranded on a crowded platform waiting for a train which is long overdue and expected any moment. Everyone hopes that although the train is late, it will arrive soon and then it will somehow make up for the lost time. Today whole of India is on the platform waiting for the train. But the realist in me is afraid that suddenly the PA system will crackle into life and some announcer, in a hurry to close shop and go home, will announce “We are sorry to inform you that The Demographic Express going to Dividend Nagar is delayed indefinitely. We are very sorry for the inconvenience caused to the travelers.”      

Cheers   

LazyBee

7^th April 2017

Credits:

1.     As you would have no doubt realized the trigger for this article has been provided by “The Rise and Fall of Nations” - by Ruchir Sharma - Published by W W Norton & Co, New York – 2016 from where the past data of countries has been taken.

2.     The Indian demographic data  was obtained from the official site of Indian Government -  Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, Ministry of Home Affairs,  www.censusindia.gov.in

3.     Any misinterpretations in above, if any, are solely mine.

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Note : 

You are getting this mail because you have something common with the sender and perhaps a healthy sense of humour to enjoy a chuckle or two once in a while.

Hope you have enjoyed this blog and won't mind receiving such mails once in a while. 

Just in case you feel that the brand of humour that is served in this blog and / or the ideas expressed here are not quite up to your taste, please let me know and I will de-list your name with profuse apologies for having intruded on your personal space. 

But just in case you feel urge to share this with some of your like-minded friends please do so. You may even send a mail to me to add them on the mailing list at lazybee.thefirst@gmail.com

Break-Out Nation

Break-Out Nation? 

Ruchir Sharma is the Head of Emerging Markets and Chief Global Strategist Research at Morgan Stanley Investment Management at New York. He has traveled the globe many times over for identifying investment opportunities for the funds he manages. He is also a prolific writer who has over the years penned his thoughts on economic conditions in various countries and the trajectories   these countries are likely to follow in near and medium term. His book “The Break-out Nations” (2012) has been an international best seller not only because it has been sired by someone who is in charge of allocating billions of dollars across the globe but for the clarity of his thinking and willingness to look beyond the superficial.

 In 2001, Jim O’Neil of Goldman Sachs had coined the acronym BRIC (to include Brazil, Russia, India, China - South Africa was taken on board later in 2006) identifying the economies which are likely to do well in 21^st century. A decade of turmoil later the BRICS seem to be losing their steam and probably would not be able to live up to the hype that was built in anticipation of their performance. But the investment fraternity, not unlike nature, abhors vacuum and is already moving on trying to identify new (potential) winners.

The Break-out Nations analyzes a number of candidates who may outsprint their peers in near future and surge ahead in The Game…….the only game that really matters - to achieve a sustained growth in GDP in pursuit of betterment of its citizens. Turkey is one such candidate country that Ruchir Sharma has identified. Turkey is a very interesting model of economy for a number of reasons and we Indians, especially, will find a few points to ponder vis-à-vis our own politico-economical model.

I present the “facts” as presented by Ruchir Sharma and leave it to the reader to figure out relevance and applicability of these inputs to the Indian scenario in his or her own “image and perception of India”.  

         

Republic of Turkey, a country bridging both Asia and Europe was formed in 1923  and has a rich cultural history spanning more than a thousand years. For first six decades of existence of modern Turkey, it has been under a quasi-statist policies with government laying down planning and various developmental goals. The economy was opened up in 80’s. (Think India!)

Its constitution defines Turkey as a secular country and it had been dominated by secular parties although more than 99% population is Muslim and the political theatre has always had a strong presence of Muslim fundamentalist parties.

The secular parties drawn from the urban elite dominated the economy and occupied all the important positions in military, judicial and executive arms. The secular parties made sure that the fundamentalist parties were effectively kept away from power at all costs but unfortunately were not able to provide a stable government to the country resulting in a succession of unsuccessful short-lived coalitions. (Does this sound familiar? We hve been fairly lucky that coalitions have not been too short-lived but the damage arising from coalition politics is well understood)

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is the current President is the founder of the ruling party, Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been in charge of the country since 2002. Erdogan was a semi-professional footballer with an Istanbul club and became the Mayor of the city (in the nineties) as a member of a fundamentalist party and then formed his own party. The administrative capabilities he showed in his earlier assignment as the Mayor of Istanbul propelled him and his party to power in 2002 and successive elections thereafter. (A sense of déjà vu? Humble beginnings … conscientious work …. Disillusionment of voters with existing order……  )

AKP is very much a Muslim party but not a fundamentalist one. Erdogan has successfully kept the fundamentalists in check and concentrated on economic development. (Is there any other viable alternative?)

Erdogan has had to take tough stance against the fundamentalists and has frequently cracked down upon his detractors giving him an image of a dictator and a tyrant. He has been accused of developing his own native region and favouring industrialists from his region. (Again the same sense of déjà vu?)

On the other hand, the economy has shown a remarkable upswing. The GDP per capita has increased from USD 3,500 in 1980’s to USD 11,000 (2015) Turkey being a resource - poor country has had to depend upon manufacturing, export and tourism to drive its growth and has been able to achieve this. (Ah, what wouldn’t one give to be even halfway there? 2017 Indian GDP estimate at less than USD 2,000!)   

Today Turkey is among the 3 top nations (with China and South Korea) dominating the international construction market. Being a part of the EU Customs Union has given it access to a large market and the Turkish companies have successfully created their own brands in the EU market thus graduating upwards from being mere assemblers of finished products.

The social scene in Turkey is a vibrant one with none of the restrictions that other Muslim nations have. The discos and bars are open almost all night, liquor is not a taboo and hijabs are prominent by their absence. (Do we hear cries of “Hey Bhagwan” and “Tobah, tobah”?)

This nation, of about 80 million, today is one of the youngest with an average age of population being less than 25 years. It has been able to generate sufficient jobs for the new generation entering the job market and is one of the very few countries which can boast of reaping the much hyped “demographic dividend”. (The holy grail of development which can very well mutate into a “demographic millstone” around our national neck unless we shed our complacency and not take our karma for granted).

Ultimately as Bill Clinton - POTUS42 - famously remarked “It’s the economy stupid”. Break-out nation or a break-down nation, the choice is solely ours.

LazyBee

25th March 2017

The Unenviable State of America

The Unenviable State of America

The Universal Studio at Los Angeles has a number of rides which specialize in springing up the most unexpected shocks on unsuspecting visitors. No doubts the rides are exhilarating but they are surely not good for the health of the faint-hearted; Obamacare or no Obamacare.  In these days of “new normal” and “alternate facts”, the whole of USA has now become a giant universal studio.  Not a day goes by before some new ride is introduced making the past, well a thing of the past! Every now and then some ‘alternate fact’ gets introduced in the collective memory of the populace which makes one start wondering whether one is still living in the real world or has unknowingly migrated into the Matrix.

This time I landed here on 20^th January, the day the new CEO occupied the corner room of the headquarters of his vast conglomerate.  Today on the 20^th of February when the TV Talking Heads are talking their heads off listing the successes / failures of the new CEO, I can’t but resist taking a look (from an Outsider’s point of view) at just a few of the reality shows that have been aired on prime time with a great amount of fanfare in this one month. Their storylines in brief are provided:

To Russia With Love: Mystery. A four star General in charge of the security of a conglomerate is found playing games with a competitor raising doubts from the keepers of anti-trust laws. The CEO of the company feels confident that the Security Chief has not done anything wrong and that he (the CEO) would anyway have told him (the Security Chief) to play games if only he (the Security chief) had taken his (the CEO’s) permission.  Alas, the game the Security Chief was playing turned out to be Russian roulette. 

Not So Amusing. So Sad.

Quo Vadis?: Game Show. It’s a revamp of the age-old game played by Romans guarding the city of Rome. Since all the roads lead to Rome, anyone who set foot on any road, eventually found himself at the gates of Rome anyway. There were people who came from faraway places like Mesopotamia, Iran, Baghdad and Damascus too. Anybody who approached the gates of Rome was asked to name himself and then allowed to enter Rome if found suitable. Otherwise they were just fed to lions or given over to gladiators for their practice matches before the main one in Colosseum. It all depended whether their names were on the list prepared by Caesar or not. The revamped game now is made slightly more humane. After asking the names of newcomers, the guards grant or refuse entry to the newcomers based on one of the two questions which have been standardized. The question selected is solely based on the guard’s state of mind and not in any way dependent on the person seeking entry. The two questions are:

·         Spell the word “God”.

·         Spell the word “supercalifragilisticexpialidocious”

Persons spelling the word allotted to them correctly are let inside the game-show and those who fail the test are asked to try again after 90 days. 

So Humane. So Satisfying.

The Judgement Day: Beauty Pageant: The Finalists are asked to appear for a viva voce in order to decide upon the Winner. The Sole Examiner who interviews the Finalists has a rich experience of conducting beauty pageants and very likely the questions posed to the competitors are the ones which appeared in past versions of Miss World contest. Since all the rounds take place in camera, it is not known if exciting rounds like swim-suit round etc are included or not. Only hitch is the Finalists are all top jurists in the land. 

So Hilarious.

In his recent episode of GPS, Fareed Zakaria compared the current situation to a children’s toy which most of us must have enjoyed as toddlers - a “rocking horse”. The toddler riding the toy has a great sense of motion and exhilaration that accompanies his / her apparent motion, but an onlooker doesn’t see it (rocking horse or the toddler thereon) progress anywhere. In this case one is tempted to call this particular toy a “rocking ass” because sometimes in these days of alternate realities the distinction between rider and ridden can become a bit blurred.

But light-hearted banter apart, unless things improve more than just a bit, the next State of the Union address will be a short one: Unenviable, unimaginable and Un-United.

As a complete aside (not remotely connected with anything or anyone past or present) my friend  Guy Wise tells me the word “trumpery” as defined by The Oxford English Dictionary means ‘deceit, fraud, imposture, trickery’. The word is derived from old French ‘tromperie’ which means deceit and has its roots in the French verb ‘tromper’ which means to deceive.  The word was first used in 1456. Ahhh. What clairvoyance! And here I have been singing praises of Americans for being clairvoyant.  (The Clairvoyant Americans )

LazyBee                                                                                                                                    

20^th February 2017.